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Driving down the road the other day, I was startled to hear one of our congressional representatives tell NPR that both Nebraska and Iowa were experiencing “basically a recession economy.”
Both states have agriculture-based economies, for the most part, and rely on foreign trade. Plus, low crop prices have dogged farmers in recent years.
The new tariffs being imposed, here and there, by President Trump have disrupted export markets for American goods, such as corn and soybeans, and caused a lot of uncertainty for businesses.
Foreign trade is a big deal in our state, contributing $7.9 billion from agricultural products alone 2023 to the state’s economy, according to the Nebraska Farm Bureau.
As a Farm Bureau economist put it a couple of months ago: “(Foreign) trade translates directly to income for farm and ranch families … the ability to sell products overseas can make the difference between a good year and a tough one for many Nebraska producers ….”
But recent news hasn’t been exactly good. Nebraska and Iowa recently tied as the states that saw the biggest drop in its gross domestic product – a 6.1% decrease – in the first quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By comparison, the drop was 0.5% nationwide.
It was the first decrease in GDP in the first quarter since 2022, according to Stateline. In Nebraska and Iowa, the decline was blamed mostly on lower prices for our top commodities, corn and soybeans.
Bacon told the Omaha World-Herald that the new tariffs – which will ultimately be paid by consumers and local businesses – haven’t helped the local economy.
The newspaper, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics data, stated that growth in non-farm jobs was less than 1% over the past year, and that Nebraska has lost 2,500 manufacturing jobs during that period, along with losing 2,000 jobs in the trades, transportation and utilities.
These are pretty sobering statistics under a president who has promised to make America “great again” and increase domestic manufacturing. (I’m a little leery of that second promise. Seems like a lot of manufacturers are installing robots in their factories, instead of hiring more workers.)
Maybe we will eventually see a booming economy. I heard a Trump economist say that we should all be patient, that once the “big, beautiful bill” tax cuts take hold and the trade wars shake out, we’ll all be better off.
But lately we got some sobering data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics about sluggish job growth. In response, the president fired the head of that number-crunching agency, calling the data “rigged” (without, of course, providing any proof of that). If you ask me, I’d rather see the president respond to such news by saying “we’re going to work hard to improve those numbers.” Instead, he fired the person who delivered the news. But what do you expect from someone who has his caddy kick his ball onto the fairway while golfing, rather than playing it where it landed, in the rough or sand trap, where duffers like me often end up?
Meanwhile, trips to the grocery store are getting pricier and pricier. And, I gotta think, there’s some worry about making payments in farm country.
The futures price for corn tumbled toward $3.70 a bushel last week. That’s the lowest level since 2020, due to the expected record corn crop and tough competition from Brazil and Ukraine.
While it is good news that the fields of corn and beans in eastern and central Nebraska look better than ever, we are due for some better economic news beyond that.
Maybe a huge trade deal with China or some other big customer to expand trade instead of contracting it.
I’d even take a few wins for the Huskers.
Paul Hammel has covered state government and the state for decades. Prior to his retirement, he was senior contributor with the Nebraska Examiner. He was previously with the Omaha World-Herald, Lincoln Journal Star and Omaha Sun.
