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OMAHA — The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above the 50.0 growth neutral reading in June, marking its highest level since July 2023, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for June rose to 51.9 from May’s 44.0. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
“This is only the third time in two years that the overall index has moved above growth neutral. Despite the significant increase for the month, on average, bankers expect approximately one in four farmers to experience negative income for farmers in their area,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.
Regarding the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate decision this week, three out of four bank CEOs agreed with the Fed’s decision to maintain the current rate. Approximately 22.2% recommended a 0.25% (25 basis points) rate cut, while the remaining 3.7% argued for a 0.25% rate increase.
According to Casey Regan, CEO of Premier Banks in Maplewood, Minn., “Flyover country is being ignored despite relatively solid growth prospects. Customers remain cautiously positive and willing to invest.”
Other comments from bankers in June: Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill. said, “We have had adequate rain in our area of Central Illinois. The corn crop looks very good, but soybeans are behind. Farmers continue to be concerned about low commodity prices and higher input costs.”
Jeff Bonnett, President of Havana Bank in Havana, Ill. reported that, “Thanks to irrigation on the east side of the Illinois River, some of our farm producers will be able to grow specialty crops (green beans, melons, popcorn and potatoes), which will allow them to be profitable for 2025.”
Casey Regan, CEO of Premier Banks in Maplewood, Minn. added, “Economic trends in Minnesota are positive despite the negative economic headlines referenced on the coasts.
Farming and ranch land prices: For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price increased slightly to a weak 40.9 from 39.6 in May. “Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on farmland prices. On average, bankers expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income,” said Goss.
According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 18.5%. For the first month of 2025, Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 55.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 22.7 from 23.9 in May. “This is the 22nd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.
Banking: The June loan volume index declined to 73.1 from 75.0 in May. The checking deposit index fell to 40.4 from May’s 45.8. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments dropped to 50.2 from 60.4 in May. Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 31 straight months.
Hiring: The new hiring index for June slipped to 52.0 from May’s 52.1. Job gains for non-farm employers have been positive but soft for the last several months.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June confidence index increased to a frail 37.0 from May’s 30.0. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss.
On average, bankers project that 24.7% of farmers will experience negative income for 2025. “Despite weak farm income for 2023, 2024 and now 2025, bankers reported that farm loan delinquency rates have risen by only 1.1% over the past six months,” said Goss.
Home and retail sales: Home sales strengthened slightly to 51.9 from May’s 47.9. Regional retail sales, much like national retail sales for June, were weak with a reading of 44.2, which was up from 41.7 in May.
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energydependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.
