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OMAHA — Rural communities are reeling. The latest survey shows the Rural Mainstreet Index plunging to a dismal 38.0 in February—its 17th dip below growth neutral in just 18 months.
Bank CEOs from a 10-state region, heavily reliant on agriculture and energy, report a grim picture. Only 9% see a silver lining in President Trump’s tariff moves.
The survey, conducted by Creighton University professor of economics, Ernie Goss, represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation.
The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.
Jim Eckert of Anchor State Bank said while opinions vary on Trump’s policies, his customers back measures to secure borders and cut federal spending.
In contrast, Jeffrey Gerhart of the Bank of Newman Grove warned that threatening longterm trading partners like Mexico and Canada could backfire.
The outlook for grain farmers remains weak. Although grain prices have inched up, many producers still face unprofitable conditions. Meanwhile, livestock producers are faring better— with over 70% of bankers expecting positive cash flow for ranchers, compared to just 54% for grain farmers.
Farmland values are also falling, with the index sliding to 40.0, pressured by high interest rates and rising input costs.
Other signs of economic strain are evident. Farm equipment sales have barely budged, remaining far below growth neutral for 19 straight months.
The hiring index and retail sales are on a downward slide, while even modest gains in loan volumes and deposit accounts haven’t lifted overall confidence.
Rural bankers remain pessimistic about growth over the next six months.
Despite a 6.1% rise in regional ag exports— led by Mexico capturing nearly half the market— the prevailing mood is one of caution.
The survey, a trusted barometer since 2006, paints a sobering picture of rural America struggling to find its footing amid policy uncertainty and economic headwinds.
