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Rural economy weakens as Nebraska sees modest rebound
OMAHA — Weak farm income and rising costs are continuing to ripple across rural economies, but there were some encouraging signs for Nebraska in the latest monthly survey of bank CEOs.
The April Rural Mainstreet Index compiled by Creighton University rose to 47.9, still below the growth-neutral mark of 50 but improved from March’s 40.9. It marked the third straight month the index has remained in contraction territory.
More concerning, however, is the outlook from bankers across the region — including states that closely mirror northeast Nebraska’s ag-based economy — with more than half reporting recessionary conditions in their local areas.
“Approximately 54% of bankers reported that their local economy was in a recession,” said Ernie Goss, a Creighton economist who oversees the monthly survey.
Nebraska shows some strength
While the overall regional picture remains sluggish, Nebraska posted one of the stronger performances in April.
The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index climbed above growth neutral to 53.9, a significant jump from 38.4 in March. Farm and ranchland prices also improved to 54.4, and hiring moved into expansion territory at 54.8.
Those gains suggest some stabilization in Nebraska’s rural economy — including areas like Cedar County — even as broader regional pressures persist.
Farm economy still under strain
Despite Nebraska’s improvement, the underlying ag economy continues to struggle.
Low commodity prices combined with higher input costs — including fuel, fertilizer and equipment — are squeezing farm profitability. That, in turn, is impacting local businesses across rural communities.
“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the rural business community,” Goss said.
Farm equipment sales remain a major concern. The index dropped to 26.1 in April, marking the 32nd straight month below growth neutral — a clear sign farmers are delaying large purchases.
Local impact felt beyond the farm
Bankers say the strain on agriculture is reaching well beyond the farm gate.
Retail sales fell sharply to 39.1, while home sales also slipped back below growth neutral. Both trends are tied directly to tighter farm incomes and reduced spending in rural communities.
Hiring has also remained soft.
The index edged up to 50.0, but only a small percentage of bankers reported actual job growth.
Limited impact from federal aid
Federal assistance has done little to change the overall picture, according to survey respondents.
Nearly two-thirds of bank CEOs said the $12 billion Farm Bridge Assistance Program has had only a slight — or no — positive impact on their local economies.
At the same time, most bankers are urging caution from the Federal Reserve, with nearly 80% recommending no change to short-term interest rates at upcoming meetings.
Outlook remains cautious
Looking ahead, confidence among rural bankers remains weak.
The confidence index improved slightly to 39.1 but continues to signal pessimism about economic conditions over the next six months.
Bottom line for northeast Nebraska For communities across northeast Nebraska, the report paints a mixed picture.
While Nebraska’s numbers show signs of resilience — particularly in land values and hiring — the broader ag economy remains under pressure. That means continued challenges for farmers, Main Street businesses and local communities heading into the growing season.
The next Rural Mainstreet Index report is scheduled for release May 21.
