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Producers know that choosing the right replacement heifers is critical for long-term herd success, but with market conditions fluctuating, it’s not always easy to determine the best investment.
That’s where the UNL Beef Economics Team steps in. In their 6th Annual Beef Heifer Replacement Forecast, experts shared tools and strategies to help producers make informed decisions. I’m going to give a summary of their report today, but if you are interested in the full details, visit beef.unl.edu.
One big takeaway from the report is the importance of understanding breakeven costs. Breakeven value is the maximum price a producer can pay for a replacement heifer and still expect her to cover her costs over her productive life. These costs depend on factors like cull rates, heifer purchase prices, and production expenses. For example, herds with lower cull rates and lower annual production costs often achieve the highest breakeven values, meaning they get the most value out of their investment. In contrast, higher cull rates and higher costs per head can lead to reduced profitability.
Annual production costs for 2025 were broken into low, mid, and high ranges. On the low end, cost per cow was $1,033.81. Mid was $1,266.28 per cow, and high was $1,422.92 per cow. A large part of this was feed costs, which made up 45 to 53 percent of all costs on average. Breaking that down even further, pasture and hay costs were 33 to 40 percent of total costs.
When evaluating heifers in your herd, take a look at the longevity of replacement heifers. Longevity not only impacts productivity but also affects cost efficiency. A heifer that stays in the herd longer spreads her purchase cost over more productive years, ultimately lowering her peryear cost. While breakeven value forecasts were given for a number of scenarios, the most common used a 20 percent replacement rate. Under these conditions, breakevens for low-cost herds were $3,327.59 per head, mid-cost herds were $2,424.19 per head, and high-cost herds were $1,808.68 per head.
Another key takeaway was the importance of aligning replacement heifer selection with operational genetic and management goals. This ensures compatibility with the existing herd and maximizes productivity. While upfront costs might be higher for genetically superior heifers, their longer-term productivity can offset the initial expense. Another management implication was the cost of raising replacements. While it may seem cost effective, when accounting for all costs associated with homeraised replacements, an accurate comparison can show purchasing replacement heifers to be more profitable.
With beef markets expected to remain dynamic, understanding the true value of replacement heifers in the herd is vital. Tools like the Replacement Heifer Forecast can be a great instrument to evaluate this portion of your operation to ensure quality animals for your herd and a profitable enterprise.
— Ben Beckman is a beef systems Extension Educator northeast Nebraska. He is based out of the Cedar County Extension office in Hartington. You can reach him by phone: (402) 254-6821 or email: ben.beckman@ unl.edu
