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HARTINGTON — Farmers across Nebraska should find favorable conditions this fall as steady weather patterns point to a smooth, timely harvest, according to a Midwest climatologist.
Illinois state climatologist Trent Ford recently gave his assessment in a NOAA webcast for the north-central U.S.
“Harvest will likely progress quickly in much of the region,” he said. “The outlook calls for leaning dry during the last week of the month and not really a strong October precipitation signal. The outlook continues to show abovenormal temperatures for most of the region from October to December.”
The North Central region has benefited from a good start to the growing season last spring, Ford said.
“Growing degree days since April 1 are running well ahead of average in much of the region and a bit behind average in the western region,” he said. “Even in the wetter parts of the region, we’re still ahead of schedule on maturity.”
The average date for the first fall freeze — defined as 32 degrees — comes in early October for northeast Nebraska, according to Ford.
The La Nina weather pattern, which originates in the Pacific Ocean and moves into the Midwest, is expected to move into the Central Plains in the coming weeks, Ford said.
“We are in a La Nina watch, with a more than 70% likelihood of La Nina before the end of this year,” he said. “Most models show a weak to moderate La Nina, with only a slightly higher than 50-50 chance of persisting through winter. Often, there is a good chance of a La Nina lasting through the winter.”
As a result, the incoming La Nina may exert little impact — or at least less than usual — on the region, he added.
For now, the region has emerged nearly drought free, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor’s weekly report.
In northeast Nebraska, abnormally dry conditions remain in western Knox County, but are no longer a factor in Cedar and Pierce counties.
Hartington is slightly above normal for the September date, according to figures compiled by the Cedar County News.
As of Sept. 22, Hartington recorded 1.40 inches for the month and 30.65 inches for the year.
The all-time weather statistics for Hartington show average precipitation of 28.94 inches through the end of September, which places this year-to-date ahead of average.
The October monthly outlook calls for equal chances of precipitation in the north and west, including northeast Nebraska.
The seasonal temperature outlook for October through December calls for warmer weather across most of the region.
For seasonal precipitation, there are equal chances for above, below and normal precip.
The December to February outlook calls for a bit cooler in the northwest part of the region. Drought is not expected in the Upper Midwest or Northern Plains.
For northeast Nebraska, the 14-day outlook calls for precipitation, according to Eric Hunt of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
Hunt serves as assistant Extension educator of agricultural meteorology and climate resilience.
He released his latest report last week.
